Where is that pesky recession? Everyone has declared it is coming, or here, or has been here. Where is it?
Or is there another explanation? Let’s explore a contrarian point of view.
First, the sky is falling scenario:
credit conditions are worsening with BKs making the news
manufacturing is in decline
employment rates are rising
savings are declining along with wages
Now, the good news for common man:
Virtually all markets are rising, many at all-time highs
Valuations, while high, remain reasonable given profits
This wealth effect impacts the top spenders – the 45% of Americans who have no or very little debt and who spend
Interest rates are on a decline
Federal spending remains high – don’t fight the Fed
AI spending and international investments in the U.S. are increasing
Tariffs have helped rather than hinder the economy by lowering costs for U.S. goods and services – and labor
Labor markets are responding positively to the absence of 2M ‘guest aliens’, with twice that figure expected in 2026,
Depressing labor costs are encouraging the next gen to develop a skill rather than go to college
As U.S. GDP grows, a spillover effect may aid more industries and service groups
If these trends continue, such a spillover effect can drive the economy further. The delayed effects of multi-trillion-dollar global investment in the U.S. - and the real results of this year’s tax law - may set the stage for continued growth.
The elephant in the room has always been the deficit. For nearly two decades, MMT (modern monetary theory) has supposed that any deficits can be met with electronic printing of more capital. Let the printing presses run! Now that this has been proven false, debt service will be a challenge for many decades. Unless hyper-inflation, a drastic decline in the USD, a substitute currency – or all of these – occur, we may be able to shamble out of the shack with little more than a bad hangover.
Of course, all of these thoughts are pure speculation, from every side. No one knows the future. I certainly don’t. When we use logical, rational explanations for the world gone mad, we join the ranks of those who fly over the cuckoo’s nest, Jack Nicholson included…
Stagnation and slow deterioration of our wealth could certainly be our gruel. But we have every reason to hope otherwise.
So when you hear, the end is neigh, turn your head to the sky. Hope is a far greater illusion than fear. Hope for the best and prepare for the worst. Neither will ever come to pass…!
Eat wisely
Sleep well
Love with Abandon!