We are often beset with news of the problems of the world. From all sides we are told ‘the end is neigh’, ‘we only have(how many?) years left’, ‘be afraid; be very afraid: news at 11!’.
I am here to tell you, ‘It ain’t so!’ Here is a representative list of economic news that belies the fear and loathing storyline.
Inflation is below 3% per annum. Down from 5%+ earlier
National gas prices have dropped by 15%
Oil and gas production is at all time national highs – and the U S is by far the largest producer of each
Unemployment remains at 4%
Virtually all markets in the U S are at all-time highs
Tariffs revenues for the Federal government may reach $400B in 2025, nearly 6x that of 2024
2M+ have self-deported or been escorted out, opening many jobs; a similar figure is expected for 2026
Foreign new capital investment into the U S may reach $15T
The recession that isn’t is also not immanent. At least six mini wars have been diverted to peace tables. The Middle East is at peace with itself for the first time in centuries. India has become an even closer friend; China has serious internal economic issues that a top-heavy government cannot solve; narcotrafficante are being forced back, their support is eroding in South America; the self-imposed war between Ukraine and Russia has taken more than 1M lives as neither side can even think about talking to one another. Hamas, Hezbollah and their Iranian supporters are significantly diminished in size and power.
All is not well, certainly – but much is quite well, thank you very much!
As we approach the holidays, let us rejoice once again, as we have for 2,000 years.
Peace on Earth
Good will towards men
The Renaissance Group has been an ardent supporter of families worldwide via www.heifer.org for 26 years. We shall do so again this year by a gift of a batch of chicks and a hive of bees to 100 families. Cambridge will match the gift, as will an anonymous donor. More than 200 families will soon be able to produce fresh food - nutritious, delicious and profitable. Each family is enjoined to share a portion of their gift with their neighbor, so to further grow their villages.
As always
Eat wisely
Sleep well
Love with Abandon!